tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3142 at 09:45, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3142 Southwest Flight history → ONT 09:45 BNA 15:35 16% 3% 0.6% 54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ONT 06:30 → SJC 07:50WN 383 1h 00m San Jose SJC 08:50 → BNA 15:05WN 3657 6h 35m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 30m Denver DEN 09:50 → BNA 13:33UA 1048 6h 33m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → ONT 05:15 → PHX 06:30WN 864 1h 20m Phoenix PHX 07:50 → BNA 13:10WN 719 5h 55m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → ONT 09:40 → SLC 12:28DL 1302 1h 17m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → BNA 18:13DL 2205 6h 33m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363 1h 52m San Francisco SFO 09:17 → BNA 15:53UA 499 7h 53m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:10 → ORD 12:25UA 2171 1h 47m Chicago ORD 14:12 → BNA 15:57UA 1928 7h 47m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 9h 27m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → ONT 13:00 → SLC 15:47DL 3172 2h 58m Salt Lake City SLC 18:45 → BNA 23:05DL 2317 8h 05m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 52m Denver DEN 17:30 → BNA 21:13UA 1300 5h 55m 71% 56%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 55m San Francisco SFO 16:10 → BNA 22:46UA 373 6h 56m 70% 53%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 14:05 → SEA 16:45AS 567 46m Seattle SEA 17:31 → BNA 23:59AS 416 7h 54m 47% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON