tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:05, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3143 Southwest Flight history → ONT 21:40 BWI 05:30 17% 4% 0.6% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363 2h 08m San Francisco SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57UA 2664 8h 57m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 26m Denver DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362 7h 17m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → ONT 18:39 → SFO 20:07UA 5624 · flown by SkyWest 2h 33m San Francisco SFO 22:40 → BWI 07:09 +1UA 1340 9h 30m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:10 → ORD 12:25UA 2171 2h 05m Chicago ORD 14:30 → BWI 17:36UA 2124 8h 26m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:45 → IAH 11:04UA 1936 1h 12m Houston IAH 12:16 → BWI 16:30UA 1720 7h 45m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → ONT 17:10 → SLC 20:03DL 4443 · flown by SkyWest 3h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 23:27 → BWI 06:00 +1DL 2079 9h 50m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590 9h 51m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → ONT 07:05 → ATL 14:23DL 761 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 16:27 → BWI 18:23DL 2928 8h 18m 98% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → ONT 12:40 → LAS 13:45WN 3151 50m Las Vegas LAS 14:35 → BWI 22:10WN 2205 6h 30m 59% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON