tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via Phoenix, leaving 06:11, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Charlotte on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2237 American Flight history → ONT 22:10 CLT 05:48 9% 3% 0.7% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177 9h 10m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 30m Denver DEN 09:50 → CLT 15:12UA 1633 7h 12m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 2h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070 7h 52m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:45 → IAH 11:04UA 1936 1h 06m Houston IAH 12:10 → CLT 16:02UA 6197 · flown by Mesa 7h 17m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → ONT 07:05 → ATL 14:23DL 761 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → CLT 18:19DL 3158 8h 14m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 2h 36m Phoenix PHX 10:06 → CLT 17:30AA 1678 8h 19m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → ONT 19:15 → PHX 20:36AA 2639 2h 59m Phoenix PHX 23:35 → CLT 06:35 +1AA 849 8h 20m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:10 → ORD 12:25UA 2171 2h 05m Chicago ORD 14:30 → CLT 17:59UA 5757 · flown by SkyWest 8h 49m 100% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON