tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 10m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 6h 59m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:45 → IAH 11:04UA 1936 3h 16m Houston IAH 14:20 → DCA 18:31UA 625 9h 46m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820 7h 35m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → ONT 19:15 → PHX 20:36AA 2639 3h 16m Phoenix PHX 23:52 → DCA 07:14 +1AA 1542 8h 59m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:10 → ORD 12:25UA 2171 2h 35m Chicago ORD 15:00 → DCA 18:12UA 1941 9h 02m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414 7h 25m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 9h 04m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363 55m San Francisco SFO 08:20 → DCA 16:47UA 1678 7h 47m 90% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON