Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3144 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3144 ONT 05:50 → DEN 09:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 3147 ONT 14:30 → DEN 17:40 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 24% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3144 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 05:50	DEN 09:05	5%	1%	0.5%	97%
UA 2446 United Flight history →	ONT 05:00	DEN 08:20	6%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 3145 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 08:00	DEN 11:10	9%	2%	0.5%	95%
F9 1500 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 06:00	DEN 09:24	13%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 1263 United Flight history →	ONT 13:18	DEN 16:38	19%	6%	0.6%	84%
F9 2908 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 10:49	DEN 14:10	20%	4%	0.7%	77%
WN 3146 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 12:50	DEN 16:05	25%	6%	0.5%	39%
WN 3147 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 14:30	DEN 17:40	28%	8%	0.5%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON