Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1412 at 05:34 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 1412 ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2239 ONT 14:15 → DFW 19:30 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1412 American Flight history →	ONT 05:34	DFW 10:41	7%	3%	0.9%	89%
AA 2893 American Flight history →	ONT 07:00	DFW 12:09	7%	3%	0.9%	87%
AA 2238 American Flight history →	ONT 10:25	DFW 15:37	15%	4%	0.9%	81%
F9 4690 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 08:17	DFW 13:31	17%	5%	0.8%	76%
AA 2242 American Flight history →	ONT 12:35	DFW 17:50	18%	6%	0.9%	75%
AA 3006 American Flight history →	ONT 23:59	DFW 05:00	19%	5%	1.1%	70%
AA 2239 American Flight history →	ONT 14:15	DFW 19:30	21%	9%	0.9%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON