Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Portland, leaving 17:32, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ONT 17:32 → PDX 19:49AS 2456 · flown by Horizon	1h 42m Portland	PDX 21:31 → EWR 05:59 +1AS 1631	9h 27m	98%	82%
United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 42m Denver	DEN 10:02 → EWR 16:00UA 1423	8h 00m	98%	80%
United Details →	ONT 05:45 → IAH 11:04UA 1936	2h 42m Houston	IAH 13:46 → EWR 18:30UA 1397	9h 45m	99%	79%
United Details →	ONT 06:10 → ORD 12:25UA 2171	2h 00m Chicago	ORD 14:25 → EWR 18:00UA 2329	8h 50m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708	1h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033	7h 49m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	ONT 17:10 → SLC 20:03DL 4443 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038	9h 50m	98%	75%
United Details →	ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363	3h 50m San Francisco	SFO 11:15 → EWR 20:10UA 274	11h 10m	99%	74%
United Details →	ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263	2h 32m Denver	DEN 19:10 → EWR 01:04 +1UA 2767	8h 46m	96%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ONT 18:39 → SFO 20:07UA 5624 · flown by SkyWest	1h 08m San Francisco	SFO 21:15 → EWR 05:51 +1UA 698	8h 12m	74%	56%
Alaska Details →	ONT 12:04 → SEA 14:44AS 654	54m Seattle	SEA 15:38 → EWR 23:59AS 263	8h 55m	74%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON