tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 27m Denver DEN 09:47 → FLL 15:47UA 2188 7h 47m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:45 → IAH 11:04UA 1936 3h 16m Houston IAH 14:20 → FLL 18:07UA 462 9h 22m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 1h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → FLL 17:28DL 745 8h 28m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:20 → SEA 09:15DL 3816 · flown by SkyWest 3h 45m Seattle SEA 13:00 → FLL 21:52DL 338 12h 32m 100% 73%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:45 → FLL 16:39AA 1862 8h 05m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:10 → ORD 12:25UA 2171 1h 35m Chicago ORD 14:00 → FLL 18:15UA 2635 9h 05m 95% 72%
DeltaDetails → ONT 07:05 → ATL 14:23DL 761 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295 8h 35m 98% 70%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 08:30 → FLL 16:05AA 550 6h 54m 90% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ONT 18:39 → SFO 20:07UA 5624 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → FLL 05:59 +1UA 1230 8h 20m 74% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON