tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · our forecast odds · issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Sacramento, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4527 Southwest Flight history → ONT 08:00 HNL 10:50 20% 3% 0.8% 98%worse than usual
AS 270 Alaska Flight history → ONT 09:11 HNL 12:09 26% 6% 0.8% 86%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 2h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 11h 19m 99% 78%
SouthwestDetails → ONT 05:30 → LAS 06:35WN 3150 1h 40m Las Vegas LAS 08:15 → HNL 11:35WN 2238 9h 05m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 3h 45m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 10h 53m 97% 75%
SouthwestDetails → ONT 05:15 → PHX 06:30WN 864 3h 00m Phoenix PHX 09:30 → HNL 12:55WN 3274 10h 40m 96% 73%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 3h 18m Phoenix PHX 10:48 → HNL 14:27AA 675 11h 16m 96% 73%
SouthwestDetails → ONT 06:00 → SMF 07:25WN 3165 1h 05m Sacramento SMF 08:30 → HNL 11:00WN 3781 8h 00m 97% 72%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363 1h 55m San Francisco SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175 8h 43m 97% 72%
SouthwestDetails → ONT 06:10 → OAK 07:35WN 3042 3h 50m Oakland OAK 11:25 → HNL 13:45WN 2879 10h 35m 100% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON