Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4868 at 09:40, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4868 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 09:40	HOU 14:50	17%	3%	1.2%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ONT 05:30 → LAS 06:35WN 3150	1h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 07:45 → HOU 12:55WN 981	5h 25m	99%	86%
Southwest Details →	ONT 06:30 → SJC 07:50WN 383	1h 30m San Jose	SJC 09:20 → HOU 15:10WN 3673	6h 40m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	ONT 05:15 → PHX 06:30WN 864	1h 35m Phoenix	PHX 08:05 → HOU 12:40WN 2833	5h 25m	96%	83%
Southwest Details →	ONT 05:50 → DEN 09:05WN 3144	1h 10m Denver	DEN 10:15 → HOU 13:55WN 1543	6h 05m	98%	82%
Southwest Details →	ONT 06:00 → SMF 07:25WN 3165	3h 35m Sacramento	SMF 11:00 → HOU 16:45WN 3782	8h 45m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	ONT 08:00 → PHX 09:15WN 4421	1h 10m Phoenix	PHX 10:25 → HOU 15:05WN 3067	5h 05m	100%	76%
American Details →	ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412	3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:21 → HOU 15:44AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest	8h 10m	99%	76%
Southwest Details →	ONT 08:00 → DEN 11:10WN 3145	1h 20m Denver	DEN 12:30 → HOU 16:05WN 1544	6h 05m	94%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ONT 14:30 → DEN 17:40WN 3147	1h 00m Denver	DEN 18:40 → HOU 22:15WN 606	5h 45m	72%	51%
Southwest Details →	ONT 16:40 → LAS 17:45WN 2213	1h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 18:50 → HOU 23:55WN 4498	5h 15m	63%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON