tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 2h 00m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087 7h 53m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:10 → ORD 12:25UA 2171 3h 28m Chicago ORD 15:53 → IAD 19:02UA 2437 9h 52m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → ONT 18:39 → SFO 20:07UA 5624 · flown by SkyWest 2h 58m San Francisco SFO 23:05 → IAD 07:30 +1UA 1083 9h 51m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:45 → IAH 11:04UA 1936 1h 09m Houston IAH 12:13 → IAD 16:30UA 2366 7h 45m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 9h 53m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 2h 35m Denver DEN 19:13 → IAD 00:45 +1UA 1412 8h 27m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → ONT 07:05 → ATL 14:23DL 761 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902 8h 25m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → ONT 13:00 → SLC 15:47DL 3172 1h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847 7h 29m 94% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON