Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1936 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1936 United Flight history →	ONT 05:45	IAH 11:04	5%	2%	0.8%	91%
F9 2412 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 09:32	IAH 14:52	18%	5%	1.0%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363	1h 30m San Francisco	SFO 08:55 → IAH 15:07UA 2498	7h 07m	97%	85%
United Details →	ONT 18:39 → SFO 20:07UA 5624 · flown by SkyWest	3h 52m San Francisco	SFO 23:59 → IAH 06:04 +1UA 505	9h 25m	100%	84%
United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	3h 14m Denver	DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599	8h 09m	99%	83%
United Details →	ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375	3h 39m San Francisco	SFO 18:54 → IAH 00:59 +1UA 1702	9h 09m	98%	83%
United Details →	ONT 06:10 → ORD 12:25UA 2171	1h 50m Chicago	ORD 14:15 → IAH 17:20UA 2451	9h 10m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	ONT 09:40 → SLC 12:28DL 1302	1h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53DL 1299	6h 13m	100%	80%
United Details →	ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263	3h 50m Denver	DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419	8h 41m	96%	80%
American Details →	ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412	3h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:33 → IAH 15:48AA 3583 · flown by Envoy	8h 14m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ONT 14:05 → SEA 16:45AS 567	48m Seattle	SEA 17:33 → IAH 23:59AS 1573	7h 54m	53%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON