Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 454 JetBlue Flight history →	ONT 23:51	JFK 08:13	27%	7%	0.9%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ONT 17:10 → SLC 20:03DL 4443 · flown by SkyWest	3h 56m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:59 → JFK 06:18 +1DL 705	10h 08m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	7h 47m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	ONT 07:05 → ATL 14:23DL 761	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 16:55 → JFK 19:48DL 2378	9h 43m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	ONT 09:40 → SLC 12:28DL 1302	2h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:35 → JFK 21:25DL 671	8h 45m	100%	77%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	1h 45m Phoenix	PHX 09:15 → JFK 17:28AA 2689	8h 17m	94%	77%
American Details →	ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:46 → JFK 16:30AA 481	7h 56m	94%	75%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:20 → SEA 09:15DL 3816 · flown by SkyWest	2h 19m Seattle	SEA 11:34 → JFK 20:15DL 415	10h 55m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	ONT 18:01 → SEA 20:50DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452	9h 49m	96%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON