Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3150 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 3150 ONT 05:30 → LAS 06:35 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 2213 ONT 16:40 → LAS 17:45 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 34% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3150 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 05:30	LAS 06:35	3%	1%	0.6%	97%
WN 2333 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 08:35	LAS 09:40	8%	2%	0.6%	85%
WN 3151 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 12:40	LAS 13:45	26%	6%	0.6%	64%
F9 2232 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 11:52	LAS 13:02	26%	9%	1.1%	84%
F9 4758 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 15:40	LAS 16:51	31%	11%	1.2%	70%
WN 372 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 21:40	LAS 22:50	31%	10%	0.6%	64%
WN 2213 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 16:40	LAS 17:45	39%	13%	0.6%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON