tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 29m Denver DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446 7h 46m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → ONT 07:05 → ATL 14:23DL 761 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434 10h 22m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 8h 36m 95% 72%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:10 → ORD 12:25UA 2171 2h 35m Chicago ORD 15:00 → LGA 18:22UA 1617 9h 12m 100% 70%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:45 → IAH 11:04UA 1936 3h 16m Houston IAH 14:20 → LGA 19:04UA 2249 10h 19m 99% 69%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:30 → LGA 17:05AA 2388 8h 31m 97% 68%
AmericanDetails → ONT 10:25 → DFW 15:37AA 2238 3h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:13 → LGA 23:45AA 2708 10h 20m 98% 65%
AmericanDetails → ONT 07:00 → DFW 12:09AA 2893 1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:54 → LGA 18:28AA 1535 8h 28m 96% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON