Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via SFO, leaving 18:39, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ONT 18:39 → SFO 20:07UA 5624 · flown by SkyWest	3h 52m San Francisco	SFO 23:59 → MCO 08:34 +1UA 1267	10h 55m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	ONT 18:30 → SMF 19:55WN 3170	2h 15m Sacramento	SMF 22:10 → MCO 06:15 +1WN 3799	8h 45m	93%	71%
Delta Details →	ONT 17:10 → SLC 20:03DL 4443 · flown by SkyWest	3h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069	9h 50m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	ONT 18:01 → SEA 20:50DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest	2h 25m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 +1DL 448	10h 39m	97%	70%
United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 50m Denver	DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354	8h 04m	98%	68%
Southwest Details →	ONT 05:15 → PHX 06:30WN 864	1h 25m Phoenix	PHX 07:55 → MCO 15:15WN 1817	7h 00m	96%	66%
United Details →	ONT 05:45 → IAH 11:04UA 1936	1h 21m Houston	IAH 12:25 → MCO 16:04UA 2662	7h 19m	97%	65%
Alaska Details →	ONT 17:26 → SEA 20:06AS 575	1h 27m Seattle	SEA 21:33 → MCO 06:16 +1AS 394	9h 50m	91%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ONT 20:45 → PHX 22:00WN 3160	1h 05m Phoenix	PHX 23:05 → MCO 06:20 +1WN 4508	6h 35m	67%	49%
Southwest Details →	ONT 12:40 → LAS 13:45WN 3151	55m Las Vegas	LAS 14:40 → MCO 22:25WN 1225	6h 45m	62%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON