tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:10, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ONT 17:10 → SLC 20:03DL 4443 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040 9h 30m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → ONT 18:39 → SFO 20:07UA 5624 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m San Francisco SFO 22:54 → MIA 07:39 +1UA 1769 10h 00m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363 1h 15m San Francisco SFO 08:40 → MIA 17:29UA 2029 8h 29m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → ONT 19:15 → PHX 20:36AA 2639 2h 29m Phoenix PHX 23:05 → MIA 06:28 +1AA 2654 8h 13m 95% 75%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 10h 07m 99% 72%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 49m Denver DEN 10:09 → MIA 16:16UA 1496 8h 16m 98% 69%
SouthwestDetails → ONT 09:45 → BNA 15:35WN 3142 3h 40m Nashville BNA 19:15 → MIA 22:40WN 4575 9h 55m 100% 67%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:45 → IAH 11:04UA 1936 56m Houston IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410 7h 02m 92% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON