Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3042 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 3042 ONT 06:10 → OAK 07:35 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 3155 ONT 16:00 → OAK 17:15 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3042 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 06:10	OAK 07:35	2%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 3154 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 11:05	OAK 12:20	10%	3%	0.6%	90%
WN 3082 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 19:30	OAK 20:50	20%	9%	0.6%	76%
WN 3155 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 16:00	OAK 17:15	24%	7%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON