tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2171 United Flight history → ONT 06:10 ORD 12:25 7% 2% 0.8% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329 6h 15m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:45 → IAH 11:04UA 1936 2h 37m Houston IAH 13:41 → ORD 16:39UA 2458 8h 54m 99% 84%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 17:32 → PDX 19:49AS 2456 · flown by Horizon 3h 10m Portland PDX 22:59 → ORD 05:00 +1AS 376 9h 28m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → ONT 18:39 → SFO 20:07UA 5624 · flown by SkyWest 3h 23m San Francisco SFO 23:30 → ORD 05:57 +1UA 368 9h 18m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 10h 05m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 3h 02m Denver DEN 19:40 → ORD 23:19UA 2085 8h 01m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 3h 19m San Francisco SFO 18:34 → ORD 00:59 +1UA 1375 9h 09m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:35 → DFW 17:50AA 2242 3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:00 → ORD 23:39AA 2346 9h 04m 100% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON