Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 1699 at 10:54, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 1699 Alaska Flight history →	ONT 10:54	PDX 13:09	8%	2%	0.8%	96%
AS 2456 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	ONT 17:32	PDX 19:49	7%	2%	1.3%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ONT 06:00 → SMF 07:25WN 3165	2h 40m Sacramento	SMF 10:05 → PDX 11:35WN 949	5h 35m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708	2h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	6h 10m	98%	87%
Southwest Details →	ONT 05:30 → LAS 06:35WN 3150	2h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 09:20 → PDX 11:40WN 4132	6h 10m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	ONT 05:15 → PHX 06:30WN 864	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 07:50 → PDX 10:25WN 4092	5h 10m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	ONT 09:40 → SLC 12:28DL 1302	2h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244	6h 29m	100%	84%
United Details →	ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363	57m San Francisco	SFO 08:22 → PDX 10:20UA 2265	4h 20m	91%	83%
Alaska Details →	ONT 14:05 → SEA 16:45AS 567	3h 40m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon	7h 17m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	ONT 17:10 → SLC 20:03DL 4443 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373	6h 34m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ONT 12:00 → SMF 13:20WN 3167	55m Sacramento	SMF 14:15 → PDX 15:45WN 422	3h 45m	67%	51%
Southwest Details →	ONT 12:40 → LAS 13:45WN 3151	55m Las Vegas	LAS 14:40 → PDX 16:55WN 2126	4h 15m	62%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON