Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 864 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 864 ONT 05:15 → PHX 06:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 3160 ONT 20:45 → PHX 22:00 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 864 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 05:15	PHX 06:30	4%	1%	0.6%	98%
AA 1194 American Flight history →	ONT 06:11	PHX 07:30	10%	3%	0.8%	92%
WN 4421 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 08:00	PHX 09:15	10%	2%	0.6%	96%
AA 2244 American Flight history →	ONT 13:11	PHX 14:33	18%	6%	0.9%	86%
WN 3062 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 12:45	PHX 14:00	20%	5%	0.6%	88%
AA 2639 American Flight history →	ONT 19:15	PHX 20:36	24%	10%	1.0%	62%
WN 3159 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 17:15	PHX 18:35	28%	9%	0.6%	73%
WN 3160 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 20:45	PHX 22:00	35%	13%	0.6%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON