Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2363 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–40%.

Safest bet that day UA 2363 ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 1159 ONT 08:58 → SFO 10:30 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 23% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2363 United Flight history →	ONT 06:00	SFO 07:25	7%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 1375 United Flight history →	ONT 13:50	SFO 15:15	25%	13%	0.6%	57%
UA 5624 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ONT 18:39	SFO 20:07	27%	18%	1.4%	16%
F9 1159 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 08:58	SFO 10:30	40%	18%	2.2%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON