Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3165 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3165 ONT 06:00 → SMF 07:25 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 3170 ONT 18:30 → SMF 19:55 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3165 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 06:00	SMF 07:25	3%	1%	0.6%	97%
WN 3166 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 09:45	SMF 11:10	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
WN 3167 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 12:00	SMF 13:20	13%	4%	0.6%	92%
WN 670 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 15:40	SMF 17:05	18%	9%	0.6%	71%
WN 2298 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 13:20	SMF 14:40	19%	6%	0.6%	88%
WN 208 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 20:50	SMF 22:15	25%	12%	0.5%	69%
WN 3170 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 18:30	SMF 19:55	25%	11%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON