Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3086 at 18:43, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 3086 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ONT 18:43	STS 20:14	19%	6%	1.0%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ONT 17:32 → PDX 19:49AS 2456 · flown by Horizon	1h 56m Portland	PDX 21:45 → STS 23:30AS 3115 · flown by SkyWest	5h 58m	98%	84%
Alaska Details →	ONT 10:54 → PDX 13:09AS 1699	1h 21m Portland	PDX 14:30 → STS 16:15AS 3483 · flown by SkyWest	5h 21m	96%	81%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	2h 47m Phoenix	PHX 10:17 → STS 12:30AA 3514 · flown by Envoy	6h 19m	96%	78%
Alaska Details →	ONT 06:02 → SEA 08:44AS 607	1h 10m Seattle	SEA 09:54 → STS 11:58AS 1321	5h 56m	92%	74%
Southwest Details →	ONT 12:40 → LAS 13:45WN 3151	1h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 14:55 → STS 16:35WN 2407	3h 55m	86%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON