Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2034 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2034 ORD 07:30 → ALB 10:43 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 6433 ORD 16:10 → ALB 19:26 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2034 United Flight history →	ORD 07:30	ALB 10:43	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
UA 1554 United Flight history →	ORD 12:08	ALB 15:17	13%	4%	0.6%	81%
AA 3463 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 20:59	ALB 00:13	17%	5%	0.8%	77%
AA 5004 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 09:31	ALB 12:48	19%	5%	0.7%	86%
UA 2792 United Flight history →	ORD 18:15	ALB 21:27	21%	8%	0.6%	66%
UA 5451 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:30	ALB 17:53	24%	8%	0.8%	78%
AA 6433 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:10	ALB 19:26	28%	10%	0.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON