Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 840 at 09:04 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 840 ORD 09:04 → ANC 12:56 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 1825 ORD 10:00 → ANC 13:42 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 840 United Flight history →	ORD 09:04	ANC 12:56	13%	3%	0.7%	86%
UA 841 United Flight history →	ORD 16:10	ANC 19:54	20%	5%	0.6%	62%
AS 1545 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 00:59	ANC 04:41	21%	5%	0.8%	71%
AA 1354 American Flight history →	ORD 16:59	ANC 20:51	24%	8%	0.7%	63%
AS 1825 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 10:00	ANC 13:42	24%	4%	0.9%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:42UA 2666	58m Denver	DEN 07:40 → ANC 11:10UA 394	9h 10m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:30 → MSP 08:04DL 1717	46m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → ANC 11:34DL 555	8h 04m	87%	74%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27DL 2041	1h 08m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922	9h 22m	92%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON