Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 18–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5279 ORD 08:52 → ASE 11:01 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest AA 6427 ORD 11:10 → ASE 13:16 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5279 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:52	ASE 11:01	18%	7%	0.9%	64%
UA 5254 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:47	ASE 22:00	19%	8%	1.8%	62%
AA 6186 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:49	ASE 21:56	21%	8%	1.7%	63%
AA 6427 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:10	ASE 13:16	23%	9%	1.1%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON