Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1264 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 1264 ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2779 ORD 18:59 → ATL 22:03 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1264 Delta Flight history →	ORD 05:30	ATL 08:29	6%	2%	0.7%	91%
UA 425 United Flight history →	ORD 07:12	ATL 10:27	7%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 1247 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:35	ATL 09:37	9%	3%	0.7%	88%
UA 530 United Flight history →	ORD 09:07	ATL 12:22	9%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 1178 Delta Flight history →	ORD 09:45	ATL 12:51	10%	3%	0.7%	87%
UA 2684 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	ATL 13:44	10%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 2426 Delta Flight history →	ORD 08:03	ATL 11:06	12%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 4759 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 11:45	ATL 14:57	12%	3%	0.8%	68%
DL 1147 Delta Flight history →	ORD 11:20	ATL 14:25	13%	3%	0.7%	80%
UA 356 United Flight history →	ORD 13:55	ATL 17:10	15%	6%	0.6%	75%
UA 2770 United Flight history →	ORD 20:09	ATL 23:30	15%	6%	0.6%	69%
DL 1477 Delta Flight history →	ORD 15:22	ATL 18:36	16%	6%	0.7%	76%
DL 2894 Delta Flight history →	ORD 13:44	ATL 16:54	16%	5%	0.7%	72%
F9 1596 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 07:05	ATL 10:30	17%	6%	1.1%	74%
AA 1363 American Flight history →	ORD 08:30	ATL 11:33	18%	5%	0.7%	77%
UA 1398 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	ATL 21:41	20%	6%	0.6%	58%
DL 2740 Delta Flight history →	ORD 18:22	ATL 21:39	20%	6%	0.7%	71%
AA 1375 American Flight history →	ORD 15:54	ATL 18:58	28%	11%	0.7%	46%
F9 1442 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 13:50	ATL 17:12	29%	11%	1.2%	62%
AA 2779 American Flight history →	ORD 18:59	ATL 22:03	32%	12%	0.8%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON