Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3391 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 3391 ORD 09:30 → ATW 10:45 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 5633 ORD 15:35 → ATW 16:53 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3391 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:30	ATW 10:45	11%	3%	1.0%	92%
AA 3790 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 23:00	ATW 00:10	13%	4%	1.5%	74%
UA 4769 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:45	ATW 10:01	19%	6%	1.1%	76%
AA 3410 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:29	ATW 18:44	20%	6%	1.1%	68%
UA 4772 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:00	ATW 19:22	26%	10%	1.4%	53%
UA 5633 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 15:35	ATW 16:53	27%	9%	1.4%	70%
UA 4495 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 22:00	ATW 23:23	12%	3%	8.1%	88%
UA 4479 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 13:55	ATW 15:09	21%	7%	0.0%	79%
UA 4460 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:25	ATW 11:43	22%	5%	0.0%	78%
UA 4475 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:45	ATW 14:05	24%	11%	6.2%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON