Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1336 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1336 ORD 07:00 → AUS 09:56 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 935 ORD 21:16 → AUS 23:59 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1336 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	AUS 09:56	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 1688 United Flight history →	ORD 09:01	AUS 11:59	11%	3%	0.6%	83%
UA 1061 United Flight history →	ORD 11:47	AUS 14:41	12%	4%	0.6%	81%
AA 2218 American Flight history →	ORD 08:30	AUS 11:13	13%	3%	0.9%	86%
UA 622 United Flight history →	ORD 13:30	AUS 16:22	16%	6%	0.6%	80%
UA 312 United Flight history →	ORD 19:58	AUS 22:54	20%	7%	0.6%	68%
AA 1568 American Flight history →	ORD 14:46	AUS 17:30	24%	8%	0.8%	68%
AA 1715 American Flight history →	ORD 19:16	AUS 22:00	27%	9%	0.9%	61%
AA 935 American Flight history →	ORD 21:16	AUS 23:59	28%	9%	1.1%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON