Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3981 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 3981 ORD 08:10 → AVL 11:09 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 5663 ORD 17:45 → AVL 20:50 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3981 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:10	AVL 11:09	9%	3%	1.2%	88%
UA 5601 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:59	AVL 09:59	13%	5%	1.1%	83%
AA 3406 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:29	AVL 18:25	15%	5%	1.5%	67%
AA 3493 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 21:29	AVL 00:23	19%	5%	1.4%	73%
UA 5573 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 13:55	AVL 16:58	23%	10%	1.1%	81%
UA 5663 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:45	AVL 20:50	27%	11%	1.2%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON