Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 762 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 762 ORD 07:00 → BDL 10:21 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 1453 ORD 19:04 → BDL 22:26 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 762 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	BDL 10:21	8%	2%	0.6%	83%
AA 4665 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 09:00	BDL 12:28	9%	2%	0.8%	90%
UA 2195 United Flight history →	ORD 11:03	BDL 14:24	13%	3%	0.6%	81%
AA 3409 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:28	BDL 16:52	15%	3%	1.0%	85%
UA 4791 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 15:00	BDL 18:37	20%	6%	0.8%	78%
UA 516 United Flight history →	ORD 18:10	BDL 21:33	21%	6%	0.6%	51%
AA 1453 American Flight history →	ORD 19:04	BDL 22:26	29%	8%	0.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON