Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2299 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 2299 ORD 08:30 → BGR 12:19 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 340 ORD 19:08 → BGR 22:57 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2299 American Flight history →	ORD 08:30	BGR 12:19	13%	4%	0.8%	75%
UA 5424 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:58	BGR 15:42	16%	6%	0.9%	97%worse than usual
UA 5681 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:59	BGR 21:47	24%	8%	1.0%	59%
AA 340 American Flight history →	ORD 19:08	BGR 22:57	25%	8%	0.8%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON