Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3971 ORD 13:01 → BHM 15:01 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 3757 ORD 21:29 → BHM 23:28 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3971 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:01	BHM 15:01	13%	4%	0.9%	86%
AA 3757 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 21:29	BHM 23:28	15%	5%	0.9%	70%
UA 4447 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 21:30	BHM 23:34	21%	9%	5.6%	79%
UA 4380 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:35	BHM 12:46	24%	0%	0.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON