tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3428 at 10:05, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3428 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ORD 10:05 BIL 12:19 9% 3% 0.6% 97%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Billings on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Billings is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → ORD 07:20 → PDX 09:45AS 413 2h 28m Portland PDX 12:13 → BIL 15:03AS 2368 · flown by Horizon 8h 43m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:42UA 2666 1h 13m Denver DEN 07:55 → BIL 09:36UA 4762 · flown by SkyWest 5h 36m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:00 → BIL 12:59AA 3429 · flown by Envoy 8h 59m 99% 87%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407 2h 37m Seattle SEA 20:59 → BIL 23:51AS 2457 · flown by Horizon 9h 08m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217 2h 50m Denver DEN 11:45 → BIL 13:22UA 703 7h 17m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → ORD 08:40 → DEN 10:31UA 526 3h 14m Denver DEN 13:45 → BIL 15:29UA 5845 · flown by SkyWest 7h 49m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → ORD 15:49 → DFW 18:25AA 2754 2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:15 → BIL 23:13AA 3937 · flown by Envoy 8h 24m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803 3h 54m Denver DEN 20:25 → BIL 22:09UA 5257 · flown by SkyWest 8h 36m 96% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ORD 12:56 → DEN 14:46UA 1150 49m Denver DEN 15:35 → BIL 17:19UA 5498 · flown by SkyWest 5h 23m 73% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON