Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2175 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 2175 ORD 07:10 → BNA 08:51 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 6326 ORD 19:40 → BNA 21:25 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2175 United Flight history →	ORD 07:10	BNA 08:51	6%	2%	0.6%	79%
AA 3973 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 06:40	BNA 08:23	6%	2%	1.2%	88%
UA 3634 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 12:29	BNA 14:14	9%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 3439 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:30	BNA 10:13	10%	2%	1.1%	86%
UA 2414 United Flight history →	ORD 10:37	BNA 12:29	11%	4%	0.6%	82%
UA 5304 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:40	BNA 10:34	12%	4%	0.9%	94%
AA 1650 American Flight history →	ORD 10:29	BNA 12:06	15%	5%	0.7%	78%
UA 1928 United Flight history →	ORD 14:12	BNA 15:57	16%	7%	0.6%	65%
UA 5665 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 15:49	BNA 17:40	20%	10%	0.9%	58%
UA 2063 United Flight history →	ORD 19:57	BNA 21:45	20%	8%	0.6%	51%
UA 2784 United Flight history →	ORD 17:58	BNA 19:44	20%	10%	0.6%	63%
AA 6200 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 13:45	BNA 15:29	21%	10%	0.9%	59%
AA 3383 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:11	BNA 18:54	21%	7%	1.4%	63%
AA 6326 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:40	BNA 21:25	22%	11%	1.2%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON