Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2137 ORD 08:40 → BOI 11:32 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 5290 ORD 19:45 → BOI 22:56 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2137 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	BOI 11:32	11%	2%	0.5%	86%
AA 2340 American Flight history →	ORD 11:30	BOI 14:20	16%	4%	0.6%	79%
UA 5290 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:45	BOI 22:56	18%	7%	0.8%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ORD 06:30 → MSP 08:04DL 1717	46m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → BOI 10:57DL 2304	5h 27m	87%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON