tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 26 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1186 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1186 ORD 06:05 → BOS 09:29 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2303 ORD 15:07 → BOS 18:46 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 1186 United Flight history → ORD 06:05 BOS 09:29 6% 2% 0.6% 92%
DL 2828 Delta Flight history → ORD 06:59 BOS 10:30 6% 3% 0.8% 87%
UA 1076 United Flight history → ORD 07:33 BOS 11:05 6% 2% 0.6% 94%
AA 3022 American Flight history → ORD 06:00 BOS 09:34 8% 2% 0.8% 97%
AA 2968 American Flight history → ORD 06:54 BOS 10:28 8% 3% 0.8% 85%
UA 1117 United Flight history → ORD 09:15 BOS 12:57 9% 3% 0.6% 87%
AA 4106 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ORD 08:30 BOS 12:07 10% 3% 0.7% 91%
DL 2570 Delta Flight history → ORD 10:28 BOS 13:59 13% 4% 0.7% 76%
UA 1606 United Flight history → ORD 10:30 BOS 14:07 13% 5% 0.6% 82%
UA 1779 United Flight history → ORD 21:41 BOS 01:14 18% 6% 0.6% 68%
AA 1563 American Flight history → ORD 10:35 BOS 14:13 18% 7% 0.7% 58%
AA 4384 American flown by Republic Flight history → ORD 16:02 BOS 19:53 19% 9% 1.2% 62%
UA 794 United Flight history → ORD 12:53 BOS 16:29 20% 8% 0.6% 67%
B6 312 JetBlue Flight history → ORD 10:56 BOS 14:23 20% 8% 0.7% 74%
UA 1693 United Flight history → ORD 13:55 BOS 17:31 22% 8% 0.6% 64%
AA 2682 American Flight history → ORD 20:29 BOS 00:05 23% 10% 0.8% 62%
DL 2816 Delta Flight history → ORD 15:19 BOS 18:59 24% 9% 0.8% 62%
UA 1032 United Flight history → ORD 19:45 BOS 23:21 24% 7% 0.6% 60%
UA 2331 United Flight history → ORD 18:20 BOS 21:56 24% 8% 0.6% 59%
UA 2466 United Flight history → ORD 15:55 BOS 19:30 26% 10% 0.6% 49%
DL 2646 Delta Flight history → ORD 19:25 BOS 23:00 26% 9% 0.8% 65%
AA 1554 American Flight history → ORD 13:59 BOS 17:38 27% 11% 0.8% 57%
B6 1012 JetBlue Flight history → ORD 20:10 BOS 23:41 29% 13% 0.9% 71%
AA 3107 American Flight history → ORD 19:29 BOS 23:06 30% 10% 0.8% 56%
AA 1461 American Flight history → ORD 17:21 BOS 21:00 30% 13% 0.8% 46%
AA 2303 American Flight history → ORD 15:07 BOS 18:46 30% 13% 0.8% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON