Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4413 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28%.

Safest bet that day AA 4413 ORD 06:46 → BUF 09:37 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 564 ORD 19:59 → BUF 22:47 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4413 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 06:46	BUF 09:37	5%	2%	0.9%	94%
UA 2753 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	BUF 10:00	6%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 2226 United Flight history →	ORD 13:55	BUF 16:41	13%	6%	0.7%	82%
AA 4913 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 13:25	BUF 16:14	24%	11%	2.1%	64%
UA 5763 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:17	BUF 21:08	28%	14%	1.7%	62%
AA 403 American Flight history →	ORD 21:19	BUF 23:59	28%	14%	1.2%	41%
AA 564 American Flight history →	ORD 19:59	BUF 22:47	28%	13%	1.1%	57%
UA 4382 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:25	BUF 13:13	27%	12%	2.1%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON