Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1269 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 1269 ORD 06:30 → BWI 09:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 440 ORD 18:20 → BWI 21:26 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1269 United Flight history →	ORD 06:30	BWI 09:27	6%	2%	0.6%	94%
AA 3446 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 06:51	BWI 09:58	6%	2%	0.9%	92%
UA 2653 United Flight history →	ORD 10:51	BWI 13:57	11%	4%	0.6%	83%
AA 4717 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 16:29	BWI 19:42	14%	7%	1.3%	61%
AA 4663 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:25	BWI 00:33	15%	5%	1.1%	79%
UA 2124 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	BWI 17:36	16%	6%	0.6%	69%
UA 675 United Flight history →	ORD 21:20	BWI 00:28	16%	6%	0.6%	60%
UA 440 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	BWI 21:26	20%	7%	0.6%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON