Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 224 ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest UA 533 ORD 20:15 → BZN 22:43 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 224 United Flight history →	ORD 09:10	BZN 11:44	9%	3%	0.6%	83%
UA 623 United Flight history →	ORD 12:45	BZN 15:13	12%	4%	0.6%	82%
AA 1645 American Flight history →	ORD 10:30	BZN 12:55	12%	4%	0.6%	71%
AA 1639 American Flight history →	ORD 13:49	BZN 16:13	14%	5%	0.6%	63%
UA 533 United Flight history →	ORD 20:15	BZN 22:43	15%	6%	0.6%	58%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ORD 06:30 → MSP 08:04DL 1717	51m Minneapolis	MSP 08:55 → BZN 10:24DL 1226	4h 54m	90%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON