Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4183 ORD 13:34 → CAE 16:43 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 4275 ORD 20:14 → CAE 23:19 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4183 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:34	CAE 16:43	13%	3%	1.6%	82%
AA 4275 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 20:14	CAE 23:19	18%	6%	1.5%	76%
UA 4528 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 07:10	CAE 10:28	13%	3%	0.0%	87%
UA 4523 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 13:55	CAE 17:05	23%	10%	2.8%	77%
UA 4478 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 17:55	CAE 21:16	27%	14%	6.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON