Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4511 at 21:14, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4511 ORD 21:14 → CHA 00:06 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4511 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:14	CHA 00:06	18%	8%	1.3%	61%
UA 4596 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 06:55	CHA 09:44	8%	0%	2.7%	92%
UA 4543 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:25	CHA 13:16	14%	8%	0.0%	86%
UA 4465 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 14:30	CHA 17:23	31%	9%	4.2%	69%
UA 4507 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 17:50	CHA 20:49	36%	21%	6.2%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON