Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2795 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2795 ORD 07:00 → CHS 10:23 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 3127 ORD 19:45 → CHS 23:09 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2795 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	CHS 10:23	7%	2%	1.5%	90%
UA 3646 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 10:35	CHS 14:06	10%	2%	0.9%	92%
AA 2452 American Flight history →	ORD 08:30	CHS 11:54	13%	3%	1.0%	89%
AA 3454 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 16:03	CHS 19:31	18%	4%	1.3%	80%
UA 2362 United Flight history →	ORD 18:25	CHS 21:48	20%	6%	0.7%	63%
AA 3127 American Flight history →	ORD 19:45	CHS 23:09	25%	8%	0.9%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON