Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3455 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 3455 ORD 10:00 → CID 11:19 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1393 ORD 19:40 → CID 20:58 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3455 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 10:00	CID 11:19	11%	3%	1.2%	90%
AA 3458 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 16:59	CID 18:20	14%	4%	1.7%	86%
UA 4647 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:40	CID 13:58	20%	6%	1.4%	83%
UA 4781 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 15:35	CID 16:55	22%	9%	1.4%	49%
UA 1923 United Flight history →	ORD 21:20	CID 22:42	23%	6%	0.7%	63%
AA 3326 American Flight history →	ORD 22:35	CID 23:49	24%	7%	1.8%	57%
UA 1393 United Flight history →	ORD 19:40	CID 20:58	28%	7%	0.7%	43%
UA 4611 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 08:40	CID 10:09	18%	14%	0.0%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON