Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1488 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 1488 ORD 07:25 → CLE 09:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1934 ORD 19:24 → CLE 21:55 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1488 United Flight history →	ORD 07:25	CLE 09:54	5%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 3422 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 09:05	CLE 11:41	9%	3%	0.8%	95%
UA 2389 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	CLE 12:58	13%	4%	0.6%	83%
AA 6363 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:38	CLE 09:11	14%	4%	0.9%	78%
UA 1502 United Flight history →	ORD 14:20	CLE 16:54	15%	6%	0.6%	79%
AA 4949 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:30	CLE 14:02	18%	7%	0.9%	86%
UA 457 United Flight history →	ORD 21:20	CLE 23:49	19%	7%	0.6%	57%
AA 3466 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:34	CLE 20:07	20%	7%	1.2%	72%
UA 1641 United Flight history →	ORD 19:59	CLE 22:29	22%	8%	0.6%	64%
UA 2652 United Flight history →	ORD 17:45	CLE 20:13	22%	9%	0.6%	58%
UA 5638 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 15:50	CLE 18:24	24%	9%	1.0%	79%
AA 4909 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:53	CLE 17:27	24%	9%	1.0%	70%
AA 1934 American Flight history →	ORD 19:24	CLE 21:55	33%	12%	1.0%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON