Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2842 at 05:07 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2842 ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1748 ORD 18:15 → CLT 21:29 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2842 American Flight history →	ORD 05:07	CLT 08:10	6%	2%	0.9%	90%
AA 1784 American Flight history →	ORD 06:30	CLT 09:37	10%	3%	0.8%	84%
UA 3450 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 10:26	CLT 13:50	11%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 3222 American Flight history →	ORD 08:00	CLT 11:08	12%	4%	0.8%	84%
AA 2530 American Flight history →	ORD 09:00	CLT 12:12	13%	4%	0.8%	78%
AA 3280 American Flight history →	ORD 13:17	CLT 16:29	14%	6%	0.9%	87%
UA 5216 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:30	CLT 09:44	15%	4%	1.0%	83%
AA 2681 American Flight history →	ORD 12:00	CLT 15:08	17%	6%	0.9%	76%
AA 2976 American Flight history →	ORD 20:54	CLT 23:59	17%	7%	0.8%	62%
AA 2917 American Flight history →	ORD 17:45	CLT 20:59	18%	8%	0.9%	59%
AA 1683 American Flight history →	ORD 16:45	CLT 19:59	20%	8%	0.9%	75%
UA 5757 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:30	CLT 17:59	22%	9%	0.9%	85%
AA 689 American Flight history →	ORD 18:47	CLT 21:59	23%	8%	0.9%	68%
UA 1748 United Flight history →	ORD 18:15	CLT 21:29	24%	7%	0.6%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON