Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2779 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 2779 ORD 07:20 → CMH 09:57 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1492 ORD 21:30 → CMH 23:59 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2779 United Flight history →	ORD 07:20	CMH 09:57	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
UA 3554 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 12:48	CMH 15:28	7%	3%	0.9%	86%
AA 4953 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 07:18	CMH 09:52	9%	4%	1.3%	90%
AA 4445 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:55	CMH 23:33	11%	4%	0.8%	72%
UA 2849 United Flight history →	ORD 10:40	CMH 13:17	11%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 3614 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 19:45	CMH 22:24	11%	4%	0.8%	73%
UA 3570 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 16:34	CMH 19:13	12%	4%	0.8%	86%
UA 3674 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 17:45	CMH 20:24	12%	5%	0.8%	79%
AA 3361 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:15	CMH 17:49	13%	4%	1.1%	81%
AA 4337 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 17:46	CMH 20:25	13%	5%	0.8%	61%
UA 1069 United Flight history →	ORD 14:18	CMH 16:53	15%	6%	0.6%	69%
AA 3540 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 16:30	CMH 19:03	16%	4%	1.1%	80%
AA 4954 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:18	CMH 13:50	16%	6%	1.1%	71%
AA 3447 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:29	CMH 22:03	17%	5%	0.9%	66%
AA 4950 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:16	CMH 14:49	17%	7%	1.2%	78%
UA 1492 United Flight history →	ORD 21:30	CMH 23:59	18%	6%	0.6%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON