Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3480 at 08:29 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 3480 ORD 08:29 → COU 10:01 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 5521 ORD 13:15 → COU 14:50 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3480 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:29	COU 10:01	8%	3%	1.3%	93%
AA 3479 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 16:29	COU 18:01	16%	5%	1.3%	82%
AA 3745 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:29	COU 21:01	17%	6%	1.2%	68%
UA 5336 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 22:00	COU 23:33	19%	7%	1.5%	79%
UA 5521 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 13:15	COU 14:50	20%	8%	1.2%	71%
UA 4392 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 08:40	COU 10:13	22%	5%	0.0%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON