Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 3498 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 3498 ORD 06:56 → CVG 09:28 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 5785 ORD 19:50 → CVG 22:26 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3498 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 06:56	CVG 09:28	5%	2%	0.8%	87%
AA 3489 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:06	CVG 09:35	7%	2%	0.8%	94%
AA 4720 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 11:54	CVG 14:25	12%	4%	0.8%	76%
AA 4776 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 22:00	CVG 00:30	12%	4%	0.9%	74%
UA 3532 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 18:00	CVG 20:33	16%	5%	0.8%	59%
AA 3950 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:23	CVG 17:55	17%	5%	0.9%	80%
UA 2370 United Flight history →	ORD 14:20	CVG 16:49	18%	7%	0.6%	72%
AA 3690 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:29	CVG 22:00	20%	5%	0.9%	74%
AA 3674 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 18:46	CVG 21:20	20%	5%	0.9%	76%
UA 2148 United Flight history →	ORD 21:20	CVG 23:52	21%	6%	0.7%	52%
UA 4648 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:35	CVG 13:04	21%	7%	1.1%	94%worse than usual
OO 6261 SkyWest	ORD 10:10	CVG 12:41	22%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 6230 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:06	CVG 18:37	26%	9%	1.2%	65%
UA 5785 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:50	CVG 22:26	26%	9%	1.0%	64%
UA 4388 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:59	CVG 15:30	17%	14%	2.7%	83%
UA 4445 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:29	CVG 19:00	29%	11%	9.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON